The Trade#
Instrument: MNQ (Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100)
Direction: Long · Size: 4 contracts
Session: early NY, around 9:41 to 10:09 AM ET
Model: sellside sweep, BOS, patient entry from the bullish order block, target the nearest pool
Result: ✅ WIN, +102 points, 2.2R, about +$816 on 4 contracts ($102 per contract risk)
Draw on Liquidity#
Price opened around 29,805, already below the London Low at 29,845 from the premarket slide. Between 9:34 and 9:41 it drove down and took out a cluster of equal lows at 29,734 and 29,734.75, bottoming at 29,719. That was the sellside sweep, and it sat well below the Asia Low at 29,788. Displacement up followed right away, and the 9:49 candle closed at 29,818.25, above the 29,811.25 structural high, so the break of structure was confirmed. With the lows swept, the draw was the nearest opposing pool above, the PDH at 29,867.25.
The Setup#
Today gave me two entries, and only one of them was any good.
- The FVG (29,792 to 29,798.75) was the trap. It was the obvious entry, left by the first displacement leg. Price tapped it at 9:48, then went 40 points lower, down to 29,754 by 9:53. A tight stop under the gap got stopped for a full loss on a setup that ultimately worked. A wide stop under 29,719 survived, but at 81 points of risk the PDH target was only 0.9R, below my 1:2 minimum, so it fails the rules anyway.
- The bullish OB (29,754 to 29,777) was the patient entry, the last down candle before the real move. Entry around 29,765, stop 29,714 under the sweep low. 51 points of risk, $102 per contract, 4 contracts for $408 total.
- Target: the nearest opposing pool, the PDH at 29,867.25. That is 102 points, 2.2R, about $816. Filled at 10:09, well inside my window.
How It Played Out#
After the sweep and the BOS, the retrace went deep, straight past the FVG and down into the order block before it delivered. From the OB it ran clean, up to 29,900 by 10:15 and tagging the PDH at 29,867.25 on the way, filling my target. The whole trade came down to not chasing the FVG. The deep retrace is exactly why the OB was the entry and the FVG was the trap.
Key Lesson#
A few things worth keeping from today.
- The FVG is not automatically the entry. When the retrace is deep, the OB is the entry and the FVG is the trap.
- Target selection decided everything. The run topped at 29,900 and stalled below the Asia High at 29,930.50, so anyone reaching for that level never got filled. The nearest pool was the right pool.
- This was a thinner setup. Sweep plus BOS plus OB sits right at my minimum confluence, not comfortably past it, so target and risk discipline had to carry it.
- When the setup is not the cleanest, size down. A thinner read means less certainty, so I cut the risk. Only ever put up what you can afford to lose.
One on myself: I went into the open without my levels drawn on the chart. That is the one genuinely missed thing today, and it is the cheap fix. Levels first, always.
Educational purposes only. This is my personal analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose.